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20 Oct 2019 09:10:56
Hi ed001,
Pleasantly surprised to see a Swansea site, because I have a Swansea-related question for you!
What's your opinion on Michu? Was he actually any good and was he ruined by injuries? Or was he merely riding a wave of confidence that one season and so was found out almost immediately afterwards? A mixture of both?
Also, why do some players have these career years that are so wildly out-of-place in the context of the rest of their careers? Can confidence really take your game up that many notches?
Appreciate that's more than one question, so thanks a bunch for your time ed.
{Ed001's Note - he was very good, though not quite as good as that one particular season would suggest. Though we will never know for sure because injuries destroyed the rest of his career and we won't know if it really was a one-off or if he had stepped up his game to that level.
It is easy to have these career years in football because so few games are played a season. It can be as simple as a lucky streak, where everything breaks your way, making you look better than you are. That is why statistical analysis wants thousands of results to measure, as you can then rule out these kind of anomalies. It is a bit like flipping a coin. You might well find that the first 30 times you flip it, you get heads every time. However over the course of thousands of flips, you will find it works out at pretty much 50/50 heads and tails.
This is why context is so important in analysing football stats, in particular. You are working with such small numbers, so you need to gather more data to try and rule out these anomalies through other means. Then you have to figure out, if scouting a player, whether an up year is simply a one-off, or if the player has improved. Is it that they are better or are they employing a new trick that has caught defenders off guard and will take them time to figure out, for example. You would expect that Michu's next season would have been less spectacular as defenders got to know his game. There are very few players that can maintain spectacular scoring spells over long periods playing for lesser teams.}
1.) 20 Oct 2019 13:31:30
Cheers ed, fantastic response as always. I came across a Michu appreciation article the other day and just remembered how much I loved emulating his goal celebration haha, thus the question(s).
{Ed001's Note - it is such a shame that injuries hit him right as he was flying high. I remember all the rumours that were flying around about him and who was watching him play, just before it hit. Pretty much everyone was taking an interest and he was all set to make a big money move as he had scored a couple in Europe, if memory serves me correctly. Swans gave him a new contract to ensure a decent transfer fee, he was reigning Swansea player of the year and then it was over for him due to injury. So sad.}
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20 Oct 2019 13:31:30
Cheers ed, fantastic response as always. I came across a Michu appreciation article the other day and just remembered how much I loved emulating his goal celebration haha, thus the question(s).
{Ed001's Note - it is such a shame that injuries hit him right as he was flying high. I remember all the rumours that were flying around about him and who was watching him play, just before it hit. Pretty much everyone was taking an interest and he was all set to make a big money move as he had scored a couple in Europe, if memory serves me correctly. Swans gave him a new contract to ensure a decent transfer fee, he was reigning Swansea player of the year and then it was over for him due to injury. So sad.}